Rupee hits 1-month high as Treasury rally, recession fears weigh on dollar – Times of India
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MUMBAI: The rupee jumped to a one-month high on Tuesday, as falling US Treasury yields and easing bets of aggressive Federal Reserve monetary action amid recession fears kept the dollar under pressure.
The partially convertible rupee was trading around 78.87 per dollar, as of 0425 GMT, hitting its strongest level since July 1. On Monday, it had closed at 79.02.
“Diminishing odds for more aggressive Fed rate hikes continue to weigh on the dollar,” said Kunal Sodhani, assistant vice president at Global Trading Center, FX and Rates Treasury at Shinhan Bank.
“Brent crude prices heading below $100 per barrel, along with the comeback of foreign institutional investor equity inflows, are assisting the rupee.”
Sliding US Treasury yields also dragged on the dollar, as investors bought safe-haven assets such as bonds on fears that US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would ratchet up tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Markets were already worried about major economies China, Japan and the United States reporting weak factory activity data at the start of the week.
Investors now await the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision on Friday where the central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate.
However, there was no consensus among analysts on the size of the move given the absence of any clear guidance from the central bank, according to a Reuters poll. Predictions from the 63 economists polled by Reuters ranged from a 25-bp to 50-bp hike.
The partially convertible rupee was trading around 78.87 per dollar, as of 0425 GMT, hitting its strongest level since July 1. On Monday, it had closed at 79.02.
“Diminishing odds for more aggressive Fed rate hikes continue to weigh on the dollar,” said Kunal Sodhani, assistant vice president at Global Trading Center, FX and Rates Treasury at Shinhan Bank.
“Brent crude prices heading below $100 per barrel, along with the comeback of foreign institutional investor equity inflows, are assisting the rupee.”
Sliding US Treasury yields also dragged on the dollar, as investors bought safe-haven assets such as bonds on fears that US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would ratchet up tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Markets were already worried about major economies China, Japan and the United States reporting weak factory activity data at the start of the week.
Investors now await the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision on Friday where the central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate.
However, there was no consensus among analysts on the size of the move given the absence of any clear guidance from the central bank, according to a Reuters poll. Predictions from the 63 economists polled by Reuters ranged from a 25-bp to 50-bp hike.
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