RBI Repo Rate: Economists see RBI raising repo rate to 6% by December | India Business News – Times of India
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MUMBAI: Economists see India’s central bank raising interest rates through December, taking the repurchase rate to 6% by the end of this year, the latest Bloomberg survey shows.
After cumulative hikes of 140 basis points in three moves since May, economists pencil in another 35 basis-point hike in the September monetary policy review, and a quarter-percentage point increase in December, bringing the main interest rate to 6%. A previous survey estimated the repo rate to reach 6% by the end of June 2023.
The rate hike expectations come despite economists predicting a moderation in inflation due to slump in global commodities and easing supply chain bottlenecks.
Consumer prices are seen easing to 6.6% from 6.76% for the financial year ending March 2023, though still above the central bank’s 2%-6% target range. Wholesale prices are seen easing to 10.95%, before moderating to low single digits in the next fiscal year through March 2024, the survey showed.
Meanwhile, data due Wednesday is likely to show gross domestic product rising 15.3% in the three months to June from a year ago, while gross value-added may rise 14%. The growth, however, may moderate to the sub-6.5% level from July-September quarter onward, weighed down by global concerns, the same survey showed.
“India is not immune to a US recession,” said Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities. “Stable domestic fundamentals in terms of strong financial sector and non-financial sector balance sheets, high foreign exchange reserve and some amount of counter-cyclical fiscal policy ahead of elections in FY 2024 will limit the growth slowdown.”
After cumulative hikes of 140 basis points in three moves since May, economists pencil in another 35 basis-point hike in the September monetary policy review, and a quarter-percentage point increase in December, bringing the main interest rate to 6%. A previous survey estimated the repo rate to reach 6% by the end of June 2023.
The rate hike expectations come despite economists predicting a moderation in inflation due to slump in global commodities and easing supply chain bottlenecks.
Consumer prices are seen easing to 6.6% from 6.76% for the financial year ending March 2023, though still above the central bank’s 2%-6% target range. Wholesale prices are seen easing to 10.95%, before moderating to low single digits in the next fiscal year through March 2024, the survey showed.
Meanwhile, data due Wednesday is likely to show gross domestic product rising 15.3% in the three months to June from a year ago, while gross value-added may rise 14%. The growth, however, may moderate to the sub-6.5% level from July-September quarter onward, weighed down by global concerns, the same survey showed.
“India is not immune to a US recession,” said Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities. “Stable domestic fundamentals in terms of strong financial sector and non-financial sector balance sheets, high foreign exchange reserve and some amount of counter-cyclical fiscal policy ahead of elections in FY 2024 will limit the growth slowdown.”
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