India needs to grow 8-10% to reach pre-pandemic levels – Times of India
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NEW DELHI: The Indian economy might be able to reach the pre-pandemic level if it grows in 8-10% range as several high frequency indicators have reached the pre-pandemic levels, experts have said.
The RBI expects the economy to grow by 9.5% in the current fiscal which ends in March. IMF on Wednesday slashed India’s GDP growth estimate for FY22 to 9.5% from its earlier projection of 12.5%. At these rates, Indian economy will be able to claw back to pre-pandemic levels.
Chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian told TOI in an interview that the GDP growth rate in the current fiscal won’t be very much off compared to the estimate of 10.5% growth.
“At this rate, India would be able to recoup the FY21 GDP loss, it is a matter of debate of what would be the permanent loss in output,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI.
“The issue is, however, when India can reach the prepandemic levels. Such a level could be either in economic activity or in level of pre-pandemic output. While some of the high frequency indicators are already back to pre-pandemic levels, it might take much longer to reach the FY20 pre pandemic output levels,” said Ghosh.
Subramanian had also said that several high frequency indicators at the macro level are actually exhibiting V-patterns. He also said India is the only country in the world, which has shown two consecutive quarters of positives, while no other country had done that amid the pandemic.
“We expect FY23 growth to be between 6.5% to 7% and thereby accelerate from there towards 7% to 7.5% range,” Subramanian had said.
The RBI expects the economy to grow by 9.5% in the current fiscal which ends in March. IMF on Wednesday slashed India’s GDP growth estimate for FY22 to 9.5% from its earlier projection of 12.5%. At these rates, Indian economy will be able to claw back to pre-pandemic levels.
Chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian told TOI in an interview that the GDP growth rate in the current fiscal won’t be very much off compared to the estimate of 10.5% growth.
“At this rate, India would be able to recoup the FY21 GDP loss, it is a matter of debate of what would be the permanent loss in output,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI.
“The issue is, however, when India can reach the prepandemic levels. Such a level could be either in economic activity or in level of pre-pandemic output. While some of the high frequency indicators are already back to pre-pandemic levels, it might take much longer to reach the FY20 pre pandemic output levels,” said Ghosh.
Subramanian had also said that several high frequency indicators at the macro level are actually exhibiting V-patterns. He also said India is the only country in the world, which has shown two consecutive quarters of positives, while no other country had done that amid the pandemic.
“We expect FY23 growth to be between 6.5% to 7% and thereby accelerate from there towards 7% to 7.5% range,” Subramanian had said.
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